📰 MIDDLE EAST CRISIS BRIEFING — 23:20 CET
2 new sources | Day 22 — late night
No strategic change this cycle. Two Tier 2 developments.
📌 THREAD: US Military Costs
Status: EVOLVING
[22:34 UTC] BBC / CSIS — Iranian strikes on US bases caused ~$800M in damage in first 2 weeks of war [link]
Delta: First independent estimate (CSIS + BBC Verify) and the highest so far. Breakdown: $485M for a single THAAD radar (AN/TPY-2) destroyed in Jordan; $310M in building/infrastructure damage on regional bases. Pentagon declined comment, CENTCOM too. Iran struck at least 3 bases more than once with repeated targeted strikes.
📌 THREAD: Iranian Diplomatic Signals
Status: NEW
[22:58 UTC] Al Jazeera — Pezeshkian: "Iran is not seeking war with Muslim neighbours" — conciliatory message to regional countries on Nowruz [link]
Delta: First explicit statement from the Iranian president distinguishing between targets (US/Israel) and neighboring countries. Comes as Trump talks about "winding down" and Mojtaba Khamenei says "the enemy is defeated." Potentially coordinated pattern: Iranian off-ramp signals toward the region, while Khamenei maintains victory rhetoric internally.
⚠️ Quiet cycle. All major evening developments (Hormuz strikes, UK bases, USS Boxer, Switzerland, IDF Beirut) were already covered in the previous cycle.