📰 MIDDLE EAST CRISIS BRIEFING — 12:20 CET
3 sources | Day 21 — late morning
📌 THREAD: Military front — Commercial fleet and Caspian
Status: ESCALATION
[09:33 CET] Tasnim/IRNA — US and Israel strike 16 Iranian cargo vessels in the ports of Bandar Lengeh and Bandar Kong (Hormozgan province): local official cites "completely burned." First direct action against the commercial fleet moored in Gulf ports. [Tasnim source]
[11:35 CET] IDF — Strikes launched in the Noor region, Iranian Caspian coastline. A second coastal front opened in the last few hours: last week, 5+ military naval vessels were already hit in the same waters. [Euronews]
Delta: Iran squeezed from both sides — Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea. Beyond military vessels, the campaign now systematically extends to civilian port infrastructure on the southern coast. No confirmed casualties.
📌 THREAD: UAE diplomatic break — Iranian facilities closed
Status: NEW
[11:53 CET] Euronews/FT — UAE orders closure of Iranian institutions on its territory: Iranian Hospital in Dubai (opened in 1972 under the Shah) and Iranian Club in Bur Dubai. Source: anonymous Emirati official cites "violation of UAE laws" and activities that "do not serve the Iranian people." UAE Security Department simultaneously announces arrests of an Iran-Hezbollah terrorist network operating under the cover of fictitious commercial entities. [Euronews]
Delta: First formal closure of Iranian civilian structures in the UAE. Marks the end of the Emirati dual-track approach (military suppression + maintaining civilian channels). The move consolidates the UAE-Iran break that began with attacks on Abu Dhabi and the Burj Al Arab.
⚡ DIVERGENCE: Mojtaba Khamenei — present or wounded?
[09:08 CET] Mojtaba Khamenei (written statement) — "Security must be taken from enemies" — public declaration via message to Pezeshkian for Nowruz. Still no public appearance. Euronews notes: "has not been seen since being named Supreme Leader."
vs. Gabbard (DNI) earlier — "seriously wounded, decision-making uncertain"
vs. Araghchi earlier — "superficial wounds"
→ Implication: The Iranian chain of command continues to function via written statements. Mojtaba's physical absence fuels uncertainty but does not paralyze IRGC operational response.
No Tier 1 strategic change in this cycle.
Key turning points to watch:
- Trump's decision on Kharg Island occupation/blockade (not yet made, per Axios 4 anonymous sources)
- Diplomatic opening via China (Araghchi: "Several countries including China can act as mediators")
- IRGC response to strikes on Noor/Caspian