📰 MIDDLE EAST CRISIS BRIEFING — 04:20 CET
3 new sources | Day 20 — deep night
📌 THREAD: Energy / Gulf
Status: ESCALATION
[02:41 CET] AP — Iran strikes energy facilities in Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia; Qatar expels Iranian diplomats within 24h link
Delta: Iran extended its South Pars retaliation by hitting Habshan (UAE), Bab field (UAE), and Qatar gas facilities. Abu Dhabi authorities report operations suspended after interceptions. Saudi Arabia declares "what little trust there was has been completely shattered." Qatar — global LNG supplier and co-owner of South Pars — ordered Iranian diplomats to leave within 24 hours.
Context: Iran had threatened Gulf infrastructure retaliation after the Israeli strike on South Pars (yesterday evening). Gulf states have so far avoided offensive action directly against Tehran, but military pressure intensifies.
📌 THREAD: US domestic politics / war costs
Status: NEW
[23:00 CET yesterday] WaPo/Reuters — Pentagon asks White House to approve $200+ billion Congressional request to fund the Iran war link
Delta: The figure — roughly 1/3 of the annual US defense budget — is "almost certain to run into resistance from lawmakers opposed to the conflict" (WaPo). First significant official number quantifying expected war cost. The war began February 28; the first week cost ~$11.3 billion.
📌 THREAD: US establishment fractures
Status: EVOLVING
[04:04 CET] SCMP — FBI investigating Joe Kent, former NCTC director who resigned Tuesday over opposition to the war link
Delta: Kent publicly stated he could not support the war against Iran "in good conscience." The FBI — under increased political pressure from the Trump Administration — is now investigating him on unspecified matters. Pattern: resignations on grounds of conscience followed by investigations, consistent with previous cases (Comey, James).
⚡ DIVERGENCE: Trump vs. Israel on South Pars
[Israel] — Defense Minister Katz promises "further surprises" after killing Intelligence Minister Khatib; Israel does not officially claim South Pars strike
vs. [Trump, same morning] — "Israel will not attack South Pars again" (Truth Social) + threat to "massively blow up the entirety" of the field if Iran continues striking Qatar
→ Implication: Trump publicly distances himself from Israeli targeting decisions, but threatens symmetric retaliation — a confusing signal to Gulf allies and Tehran alike about who actually controls escalation.
No Tier 1 changes on nuclear front or Hormuz in this cycle.