📰 MIDDLE EAST CRISIS BRIEFING — 05:32 CET

5 sources | Day 12 — early morning (Wednesday, March 11)

📌 THREAD: Hormuz — Active Mining and Naval War

Status: ESCALATION

[~00:05 CET] CENTCOM — US destroys 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz; official footage released. (Guardian)
[Day 11 night] CNN/US intelligence — Iran has already laid "a few dozen" mines in the Strait over the past 48 hours and has the capacity to lay hundreds more.

Delta: Iran hasn't just rhetorically blocked Hormuz — it has begun active physical mining. CENTCOM responds with a dedicated operation. Threat quality escalates: from declared blockade to armed obstruction.

⚡ DIVERGENCE: Wright's deleted tweet on naval escort

Energy Secretary Wright (US) posted on X that "the US Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz" → WTI crashes 19% in minutes, ETF loses $84M in market cap.
Post deleted. Pentagon spokesperson denies: "no escort took place, post incorrectly captioned."
IRGC (Naini): "Any movement of the US fleet and its allies will be stopped by our missiles and drones."
Implication: Markets react extremely to any signal about Hormuz. US communication remains chaotic on the most sensitive issue of the crisis — creating space for informational manipulation.

Context: Strait de facto closed since February 28. Aramco CEO Nasser (Day 11): "catastrophe" for oil markets if Hormuz doesn't reopen soon. Brent oscillated between $85 and $119/barrel in the past 48 hours.

📌 THREAD: Iraqi Front — New Diplomatic Facility Attack

Status: ESCALATION

[04:34 CET] Guardian/Reuters — Drone strikes the Baghdad Diplomatic Support Center (near Baghdad International Airport). 6 drones launched, 5 shot down, 1 hits a guard tower. No casualties. Operation attributed to Islamic Resistance in Iraq (Iran-backed militia umbrella group). (Guardian live)

Delta: Distinct and more direct attack compared to the Katyusha rockets on the Green Zone in previous days. The targeted facility is the main US diplomatic support hub in Iraq, near the airport — not the traditional diplomatic quarter. Iraqi militias are opening a front targeting US logistical infrastructure, not just military presence.

📌 THREAD: Iran Succession — Mojtaba Wounded (Confirmed)

Status: EVOLVING

[04:17 UTC] NYT — Mojtaba Khamenei was already wounded during Israeli strikes early in the war, confirmed by Iranian and Israeli officials. (NYT)

Delta: From "slightly wounded" (Haaretz rumor) to NYT multilateral confirmation with Iranian internal sources. The new Supreme Leader led Iran through war and succession while already wounded, before his appointment was officially announced (March 8). This changes the picture: Mojtaba is not an untouched symbol — he is a leader under physical duress from Hour Zero.

Context: Mojtaba officially appointed March 8, 21:20 UTC. IRGC and armed forces pledge bloc loyalty. IDF had declared intent to eliminate any successor.

📌 THREAD: IRGC — Offensive Continuity Day 12

Status: EVOLVING

[~02:35-03:00 CET] IRGC/Guardian live — First Day 12 wave: missiles targeting satellite communications center in Haifa + Israeli military bases + 5th Fleet Bahrain + bases in Iraqi Kurdistan. IDF confirms interceptions, systems operational.
IRGC: "We will continue our sustained attacks with purpose and power. In this war, we contemplate nothing but the enemy's complete surrender."

Delta: No tactical pause post-Mojtaba appointment, despite losing 16 mine-laying ships. Target expanded to Iraqi Kurdistan — anticipatory response to Kurdish ground incursion plan. Overall frequency unchanged.

📌 THREAD: US Intelligence — The Miscalculation

Status: NEW

[03:15 UTC] NYT — "How Trump and His Advisers Miscalculated Iran's Response to War": the US administration expected a much more limited Iranian response. Not anticipated: IRGC resilience post-Khamenei, the scale of simultaneous strikes across all Gulf states, and sustained missile capacity after weeks of raids. (NYT)

Delta: Significant shift from Trump's "ended soon" narrative to the revelation that the strategic assumptions were wrong from the start. This is the first structured journalistic document to dismantle the "well-executed plan" narrative from within US government sources.

📌 OPERATIONAL NOTES (Tier 3)

Australia formally closes embassies in Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv + consulate in Dubai. 3,200+ Australians repatriated on 23 commercial flights. (Guardian live, 05:13 CET)
IRGC denies US/ISW claim of 80% launcher destruction: "We are deploying missiles in greater numbers with warheads >1 ton."
Iran maintains no-negotiations stance: Araghchi (PBS, Day 11): "We have not closed the Strait of Hormuz" — but IRGC had stated the opposite. Internal divergence confirmed.

🔭 Key Developments to Monitor

Mojtaba's official ceremony: postponed indefinitely due to strikes — when it happens, it will shift internal narrative
Naval escort at Hormuz: Pentagon "looking at options" after Wright's deleted tweet
Witkoff/Kushner: visit to Israel cancelled (Tuesday) over US-Israel rift on energy targeting — new date?
Iraqi front: US response to Baghdad Diplomatic Support Center attack
Congress hearing: Democrats demand public hearing with Hegseth+Rubio on war objectives

Sources: Guardian, BBC, NYT, CNN, Al Jazeera, Reuters, CENTCOM, IRGC/PressTV (offline)

📰 MIDDLE EAST CRISIS BRIEFING — 05:32 CET

5 sources | Day 12 — early morning (Wednesday, March 11)

📌 THREAD: Hormuz — Active Mining and Naval War

Status: ESCALATION

[~00:05 CET] CENTCOM — US destroys 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz; official footage released. (Guardian)
[Day 11 night] CNN/US intelligence — Iran has already laid "a few dozen" mines in the Strait over the past 48 hours and has the capacity to lay hundreds more.

⚡ DIVERGENCE: Wright's deleted tweet on naval escort

Energy Secretary Wright (US) posted on X that "the US Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz" → WTI crashes 19% in minutes, ETF loses $84M in market cap.
Post deleted. Pentagon spokesperson denies: "no escort took place, post incorrectly captioned."
IRGC (Naini): "Any movement of the US fleet and its allies will be stopped by our missiles and drones."
Implication: Markets react extremely to any signal about Hormuz. US communication remains chaotic on the most sensitive issue of the crisis — creating space for informational manipulation.

📌 THREAD: Iraqi Front — New Diplomatic Facility Attack

Status: ESCALATION

[04:34 CET] Guardian/Reuters — Drone strikes the Baghdad Diplomatic Support Center (near Baghdad International Airport). 6 drones launched, 5 shot down, 1 hits a guard tower. No casualties. Operation attributed to Islamic Resistance in Iraq (Iran-backed militia umbrella group). (Guardian live)

📌 THREAD: Iran Succession — Mojtaba Wounded (Confirmed)

Status: EVOLVING

[04:17 UTC] NYT — Mojtaba Khamenei was already wounded during Israeli strikes early in the war, confirmed by Iranian and Israeli officials. (NYT)

Context: Mojtaba officially appointed March 8, 21:20 UTC. IRGC and armed forces pledge bloc loyalty. IDF had declared intent to eliminate any successor.

📌 THREAD: IRGC — Offensive Continuity Day 12

Status: EVOLVING

[~02:35-03:00 CET] IRGC/Guardian live — First Day 12 wave: missiles targeting satellite communications center in Haifa + Israeli military bases + 5th Fleet Bahrain + bases in Iraqi Kurdistan. IDF confirms interceptions, systems operational.
IRGC: "We will continue our sustained attacks with purpose and power. In this war, we contemplate nothing but the enemy's complete surrender."

📌 THREAD: US Intelligence — The Miscalculation

Status: NEW

[03:15 UTC] NYT — "How Trump and His Advisers Miscalculated Iran's Response to War": the US administration expected a much more limited Iranian response. Not anticipated: IRGC resilience post-Khamenei, the scale of simultaneous strikes across all Gulf states, and sustained missile capacity after weeks of raids. (NYT)

📌 OPERATIONAL NOTES (Tier 3)

Australia formally closes embassies in Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv + consulate in Dubai. 3,200+ Australians repatriated on 23 commercial flights. (Guardian live, 05:13 CET)
IRGC denies US/ISW claim of 80% launcher destruction: "We are deploying missiles in greater numbers with warheads >1 ton."
Iran maintains no-negotiations stance: Araghchi (PBS, Day 11): "We have not closed the Strait of Hormuz" — but IRGC had stated the opposite. Internal divergence confirmed.

🔭 Key Developments to Monitor

Mojtaba's official ceremony: postponed indefinitely due to strikes — when it happens, it will shift internal narrative
Naval escort at Hormuz: Pentagon "looking at options" after Wright's deleted tweet
Witkoff/Kushner: visit to Israel cancelled (Tuesday) over US-Israel rift on energy targeting — new date?
Iraqi front: US response to Baghdad Diplomatic Support Center attack
Congress hearing: Democrats demand public hearing with Hegseth+Rubio on war objectives

Sources: Guardian, BBC, NYT, CNN, Al Jazeera, Reuters, CENTCOM, IRGC/PressTV (offline)