🔴 Middle East Crisis Report — Day 11
Tuesday 10 March 2026 | 17:00 UTC
🚨 KEY DEVELOPMENTS (last 2h)
🇺🇸 HEGSETH: "TODAY THE MOST INTENSE DAY"
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said Tuesday would be "the most intense day of strikes" since the war began. He added that it is up to Trump to assess whether we are "at the beginning, middle or end". No sign of diplomacy.
⚠️ LARIJANI THREATENS TRUMP DIRECTLY
After Trump said on social media that the US would hit Iran "20 times harder" if it tries to block oil flows, Ali Larijani (Iran national security chief) responded: "Take care of yourself so you are not eliminated." — the most explicit direct threat to Trump’s life from the Iranian side.
🛢️ US EASING SANCTIONS ON RUSSIAN OIL
The US Treasury is easing restrictions on Russian oil exports to contain fuel prices. Including a 30-day waiver for India to buy Russian oil already at sea. Scott Bessent open to removing further sanctions. Historic shift: the Iran war is overturning Ukraine sanctions policy.
🇮🇷 IRGC: MISSILES NOT DESTROYED, 1-TONNE WARHEADS
The IRGC has rejected US claims of having destroyed Iran’s missile programme: it is deploying more missiles with warheads over 1 tonne. Operational continuity confirmed — contradicts Pentagon narrative.
🇱🇧 LEBANON HUMANITARIAN CRISIS: 700,000 DISPLACED
The UN (IOM) reports over 667,000 people registered as displaced in Lebanon — 100,000 in the last 24 hours. Tens of thousands sleeping in schools, cars and on Beirut’s corniche pavements. Lebanese dead approach 500.
🇬🇧 HMS DRAGON TO EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN
The Type 45 destroyer HMS Dragon has left Portsmouth and is heading for the eastern Mediterranean to protect RAF bases in Cyprus from further Iranian drone/missile attacks.
🇵🇰 PAKISTAN ESCORTS MERCHANT SHIPS TO HORMUZ
Pakistani warships are escorting merchant vessels through the Strait of Hormuz to secure access to energy supplies. Signal that the strait remains operationally dangerous.
🌍 UPDATED TOLL (17:00 UTC)
- Iran: ~1,300 dead (Iranian officials)
- Lebanon: ~500 dead (Lebanese state media)
- Gulf: at least 30 dead
- US: 8 soldiers killed
- Israel: 13 dead
🏭 IRAN APPEALS TO UN ON "ENVIRONMENTAL CRIME"
Iran has formally accused the US and Israel of "manifest environmental crime" at the UN over the bombing of fuel depots in Tehran. Black rain and toxic smoke persist over millions of residents.
📊 MACRO: OIL AND MARKETS
- Brent structurally above $108–115/barrel (partial correction from yesterday’s $119 peak)
- Goldman Sachs keeps estimate $150 by end of March without Hormuz reopening
- US easing sanctions on Russian oil as emergency energy measure
- European gas >60 €/MWh
🔮 TURNING POINTS IN COMING HOURS
- Most intense attacks of the war so far on Iran (Hegseth statement)
- Iranian response to Trump "×20" threat — Larijani has already responded with threat to Trump
- Evolution of Russia sanctions easing — massive geopolitical implications for Ukraine
- Lebanon: border with humanitarian catastrophe — 700k displaced, Hezbollah active
Sources: Guardian, NYT, Al Jazeera | Previous check: 10 Mar 14:47 UTC