📰 MIDDLE EAST CRISIS BRIEFING — 05:02 CET
4 sources | Day 11 — early hours
No strategic change this cycle. 60-minute window, two developments with real delta.
📌 THREAD: Minab School — evidence chain closes
Status: IN EVOLUTION
[03:45 CET]NYT — Iran publishes photos of missile fragments from school strike: appear to be US-made [link][~16:00 CET yesterday]BBC Verify — Video confirmed authentic (Mehr News Agency): a Tomahawk missile strikes IRGC base 200m from Shajareh Tayebeh primary school in Minab. Experts: neither Israel nor Iran possess Tomahawks, only the USA. [link]
Delta: Evidence chain now includes (1) Bellingcat trajectory analysis, (2) NYT Tomahawk video, (3) BBC Verify independent analysis, (4) Iran photos of US-made missile fragments. CBS reports preliminary US assessment finds strike "likely" US-operated, not intentional. Trump aboard Air Force One said "Iran did it, they're inaccurate." The gap between words and evidence has never been wider.
Context: 168 confirmed victims, ~110 girls. No public admission from USA or Israel.
📌 THREAD: Diplomatic/Trump — "the war will continue"
Status: Narrative STALEMATE
[03:15 CET]NYT — Trump seeks to calm energy markets but confirms war will go on [link]
Delta: After contradictory overnight messages ("very complete" vs "not won enough"), NYT crystallizes the operational position: war continues. Brent holding at $108-115 after peak of $119.
📌 THREAD: Humanitarian impact — migrant workers
Status: NEW
[04:01 CET]NYT — "As War Comes to Gulf States, Migrant Workers Pay the Highest Price" [link]
Delta: First systematic account of the human cost of the war on ~30 million migrant workers in the Gulf (South Asian, African, Southeast Asian). They are the invisible victims: not evacuated by home governments, often without diplomatic coverage, trapped in countries under attack.
Next milestones to watch (Day 11)
- Official US response to Minab evidence chain (BBC Verify + Iran photos)
- Witkoff/Kushner: cancelled Israel visit — will it resume? (energy targeting rift)
- IRGC: announced increase in missile "strength and frequency" and wider range — materializing?
- Mojtaba succession: already ordered first missile wave, rejected any tactical pause