📰 IRAN CRISIS BRIEFING — 10:32 CET | Day 10, Monday morning
Week 2 — Mojtaba Khamenei commands, diplomatic window closed
Key delta this cycle: Witkoff/Kushner cancelled their Tuesday trip to Israel (vs. previous report which said they were going) — the US-Israel rift over energy strikes deepens. Von der Leyen delivers EU's sharpest statement yet. New Iranian missile wave hits Tel Aviv area under new Supreme Leader.
📌 THREAD: US-Israel Rift — Witkoff/Kushner CANCEL Israel Trip
Status: ESCALATING COALITION FRACTURE
[~09:30 CET] Channel 12 (Israel) — Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have cancelled their planned visit to Israel scheduled for Tuesday.
Delta: The previous cycle had confirmed the trip. The cancellation — coming hours after reports that Washington is "irked" at Israel for striking Iranian fuel depots — is a significant signal. The US-Israel operational divergence on energy targeting, previously managed diplomatically, is now producing a breakdown in coordination. Energy Secretary Wright had explicitly said "US will not strike Iranian energy infrastructure" while Israel already hit 5 Tehran depots. No visit = no leash on Israel this week.
📌 THREAD: EU Position — Von der Leyen Defines Europe's Stance
Status: NEW — CLEAREST EU STATEMENT YET
[~09:17 CET] Von der Leyen, EU Ambassadors Conference (Brussels):
- "The old world order will not return. Europe cannot be a guardian of a world that is gone."
- "There should be no tears shed for the Iranian regime — it has inflicted death and repression on its own people."
- "We are witnessing a regional conflict with unintended consequences that are already real today — on energy, finance, trade, transport, displacement of people."
- "British bases have been targeted in Cyprus — with which I reaffirm our full solidarity. NATO was asked to shoot down a drone."
[~09:20 CET] Metsola (EU Parliament): "Attacks on Gulf countries are unjustifiable and must stop immediately."
Delta: EU is not condemning the initial strikes, but formally calling out Iranian attacks on Gulf states and framing the conflict as a systemic challenge to the rules-based international order. Von der Leyen's three priorities: European Security Strategy, trade with third countries, results-oriented diplomacy. Europe is moving — slowly — toward a coordinated position.
📌 THREAD: Military — New Iranian Missile Wave on Tel Aviv
Status: ACTIVE ESCALATION (Day 10 under Mojtaba)
[~09:16 CET] IDF — Air raid sirens activated across Tel Aviv and central Israel; IDF confirms new Iranian missile wave inbound.
Delta: First major confirmed attack under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei (officially confirmed March 8, 22:00 UTC). The first IRGC wave of Day 10 was already labelled "At Your Command, Sayyid Mojtaba" — no tactical pause after the succession. This wave confirms continuity and consolidation of command.
📌 THREAD: Markets / Energy — G7 Acts to Contain Spike
Status: PARTIAL RELIEF, FRAGILE
[~08:00–09:30 CET] FT / Reuters / BBC:
- G7 finance ministers + IEA will discuss on Monday a joint emergency oil reserve release — UK Chancellor Reeves joining the talks.
- Saudi Aramco launches rare prompt crude supply tenders to counter the price spike.
- Brent retreats from $115 to ~$108–110/barrel on the G7 news — but Goldman Sachs maintains $150 end-March forecast if Hormuz stays blocked.
Delta: First concrete coordinated response from the G7 to the energy shock. Partial but real: a $5–7/barrel pullback from the intraday peak. Markets remain at 2022 highs; the structural supply disruption is unchanged.
📌 THREAD: Humanitarian / Evacuation
Status: ONGOING NORMALIZATION (partial)
[~09:16 CET] Israeli media — 603 Israelis stranded in Dubai landed in Tel Aviv on the first two Flydubai direct flights — first commercial normalization of UAE-Israel routes since the conflict began.
[~09:30 CET] Singapore — Government dispatches a Republic of Singapore Air Force aircraft to Saudi Arabia to evacuate citizens.
Delta: Small but symbolically important: UAE (despite ongoing Iranian attacks) is cooperating on civilian repatriation of Israelis — the UAE-Israel relationship survives the crisis operationally.
📊 SITUATION SUMMARY — 10:32 CET, Day 10
Situation in one sentence: Week 2 escalates without diplomatic off-ramp. Mojtaba enthroned, IRGC firing. US-Israel coalition shows its first operational crack as Witkoff trip cancelled. EU begins to crystallize its position. Oil retreats slightly but G7 emergency on.
Active fronts:
| Front | Status |
|---|---|
| Iran (air) | Active — 2,000+ IDF targets, new missile waves from IRGC |
| Lebanon-Hezbollah | IDF advancing; Al Qard Al Hassan (financial arm) next target |
| Gulf states | Iran attacks continue despite Pezeshkian "apology" — IRGC ignores civilian leadership |
| Diplomacy | Dead — Araghchi: "no negotiations". Trump: "cry uncle". Witkoff trip cancelled |
| Markets | Brent ~$108–110; G7 SPR talks underway; Goldman Sachs: $150 if Hormuz stays blocked |
Key inflection points to watch today:
- 📍 G7/IEA coordinated SPR release — announced or postponed?
- 📍 IDF strikes on Al Qard Al Hassan (Hezbollah financial system) — imminent
- 📍 Mojtaba Khamenei first public statement — sets the new regime's strategic line
- 📍 Iran missile capacity after 10 days — CENTCOM said -90% rate; IRGC still firing
Sources: Sky TG24, Channel 12 (IL), IDF, FT, Reuters, BBC, Al Jazeera, Guardian | 09:32 UTC, 9 March 2026