📰 MIDDLE EAST CRISIS BRIEFING — 18:03 CET

4 sources | Day 9, afternoon

No strategic shift this cycle — operational and diplomatic developments.

📌 THREAD: Iran Succession

Status: EVOLVING

The sequence now: Assembly of Experts formalizes choice → name not revealed → FM Araghchi says he doesn't know who it is.

[~11:36 UTC] Guardian/AoE — Assembly of Experts formally announces selection of new Supreme Leader, but does not reveal the name. AoE member: "The Great Satan mentioned his name" (Mojtaba implicit) theguardian.com
[~16:00 UTC] NYT live — FM Araghchi: "It is unclear who will become the next supreme leader" — despite AoE announcement the same day nytimes.com

Delta: First explicit divergence between AoE (clerics) and FM (Pezeshkian government) on succession. Two readings: (1) tactical silence to protect the candidate from IDF threat to eliminate anyone named, (2) civilian government has been cut out — IRGC and AoE acting autonomously.

IDF reiterates: "We will pursue every successor and anyone who participates in the appointment." Succession is happening under concrete physical threat.

⚡ DIVERGENCE: Religious institution vs. Iran's executive branch

AoE (member Heidari Alekasir) — "The decision is made. The Great Satan did us a service by naming unacceptable candidates" → Mojtaba implicit
vs. FM Araghchi — "Unclear who will become the next supreme leader"
→ Implication: Either the candidate is deliberately kept secret to evade the IDF threat, or the succession is being managed by IRGC+AoE bypassing the civilian government. The second scenario would have major implications for regime cohesion.

📌 THREAD: EU Diplomacy

Status: NEW

[~15:00 UTC] SCMP — Macron personally traveling to Cyprus as France deploys warships to the eastern Mediterranean. First visit by a G7 leader to a country directly hit by the war (RAF Akrotiri base). scmp.com

Context: France has already sent aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, air defenses to Cyprus, and additional fighters. Macron in Cyprus consolidates France's profile as the most militarily engaged European power in the conflict — and signals that escalation in southern Europe is being taken seriously by Paris.

📌 THREAD: Gulf Front

Status: EVOLVING

[16:35 UTC] Indian Express/Bahrain MoI — Iranian missile debris hits university building in Muharraq, 3 injured, material damage. indianexpress.com

Delta: Despite Pezeshkian's pledge to halt strikes on neighbors, IRGC continues to hit — consistent with the succession divergence: civilian government no longer controls military operations.

No strategic shift this cycle. Oil heading toward $100/barrel (Goldman Sachs). Energy strikes on Tehran ongoing. Lebanon front active (394 killed in Lebanon, 2 IDF soldiers killed Sunday).

📰 MIDDLE EAST CRISIS BRIEFING — 18:03 CET

4 sources | Day 9, afternoon

No strategic shift this cycle — operational and diplomatic developments.

📌 THREAD: Iran Succession

Status: EVOLVING

The sequence now: Assembly of Experts formalizes choice → name not revealed → FM Araghchi says he doesn't know who it is.

[~11:36 UTC] Guardian/AoE — Assembly of Experts formally announces selection of new Supreme Leader, but does not reveal the name. AoE member: "The Great Satan mentioned his name" (Mojtaba implicit) theguardian.com
[~16:00 UTC] NYT live — FM Araghchi: "It is unclear who will become the next supreme leader" — despite AoE announcement the same day nytimes.com

IDF reiterates: "We will pursue every successor and anyone who participates in the appointment." Succession is happening under concrete physical threat.

⚡ DIVERGENCE: Religious institution vs. Iran's executive branch

AoE (member Heidari Alekasir) — "The decision is made. The Great Satan did us a service by naming unacceptable candidates" → Mojtaba implicit
vs. FM Araghchi — "Unclear who will become the next supreme leader"
→ Implication: Either the candidate is deliberately kept secret to evade the IDF threat, or the succession is being managed by IRGC+AoE bypassing the civilian government. The second scenario would have major implications for regime cohesion.

📌 THREAD: EU Diplomacy

Status: NEW

[~15:00 UTC] SCMP — Macron personally traveling to Cyprus as France deploys warships to the eastern Mediterranean. First visit by a G7 leader to a country directly hit by the war (RAF Akrotiri base). scmp.com

📌 THREAD: Gulf Front

Status: EVOLVING

[16:35 UTC] Indian Express/Bahrain MoI — Iranian missile debris hits university building in Muharraq, 3 injured, material damage. indianexpress.com

Delta: Despite Pezeshkian's pledge to halt strikes on neighbors, IRGC continues to hit — consistent with the succession divergence: civilian government no longer controls military operations.

No strategic shift this cycle. Oil heading toward $100/barrel (Goldman Sachs). Energy strikes on Tehran ongoing. Lebanon front active (394 killed in Lebanon, 2 IDF soldiers killed Sunday).