📰 MIDDLE EAST CRISIS BRIEFING — 06:00 CET

Day 5 | Reuters/SCMP/Politico | Batch 05:00 UTC

📌 THREAD: US Domestic Politics — War Powers Status: EVOLVING

• ~04:00 CET Reuters/Politico — Hawley (R-Missouri) announces NO vote on the Senate War Powers Resolution: “They’re in compliance with the statute — they have 60 days.” The GOP senator who previously backed restraining Trump on Venezuela now aligns with him. [Reuters] [Politico]
• Overview: Only a handful of Republicans joined Democrats — GOP holds slim majority but has blocked every effort so far. Resolution effectively doomed in Senate.

Delta: Critical. Hawley was the most likely GOP senator to break with Trump. With his NO, the Senate War Powers Resolution is effectively dead. Trump gets a green light to continue operations for the 60-day statutory window.

📌 THREAD: Iran Internal Front — Kurds Status: NEW

• ~05:30 CET Reuters/SCMP — Iranian Kurdish militias have consulted with the US in recent days about whether and how to attack Iranian security forces in western Kurdistan, according to three sources. First concrete signal of potential proxy ground activation against the regime from within. [Reuters]

Delta: Tier 1. Opens a potential fourth front — not aerial but ground-based, not from outside but from within Iran. Confirms the US/Israel strategy of weakening the regime from within as a complement to airstrikes.

No other strategic shift in this cycle.

Key inflection points:

• Formal Senate War Powers vote today — now expected to fail
• Kurdish operational developments in Iranian Kurdistan
• European market opening after KOSPI suspension